The 18th National Congress proposed the task of achieving a well-to-do level in 2020, doubling the countryâ€™s gross domestic product and per capita income, achieving the grand goals of the developed countries in 2050, and the overall development of the economy, politics, culture, society, and the ecological environment. Future developments clearly define the goals and directions. The economic growth in 2013 is generally forecast to be better than 8% this year. Due to the increase in infrastructure investment and the increase in demand for heavy chemical products, the electricity elasticity coefficient rebounded slightly, and the electricity elasticity coefficient was around 0.9. It is predicted that the annual power generation will reach about 53.4 billion kWh, a growth rate of 7.2%. The per capita generating capacity is about 3920 kWh.
The investment in electricity continues to increase. It is forecasted that about 90 million kilowatts of new power generation capacity will be added in the year, about 20 million kilowatts of hydropower will be added, and a number of large hydropower stations including Xiluodu, Jinping, Ahai, and Longkou will be completed and put into production; To promote nuclear power construction, a number of domestically produced nuclear power plants built under the new standards will be completed and put into production, including Liaoning Hongyanhe, Fujian Ningde, Yangjiang, Guangdong, and Fangjiashan, Zhejiang, with a capacity of approximately 500 to 6 million kilowatts, and the quality of which will reach the world's advanced level; Grid-connected installed capacity is 1,500 to 18 million kilowatts, photovoltaic power generation is about 800 to 10 million kilowatts, and new clean energy generating capacity is about 50 million kilowatts, accounting for more than half of the new capacity. China's power generation capacity structure has gradually developed toward clean, low-carbon and high-efficiency. Baihetan and Lianghekou will start construction of large-scale hydropower projects. According to the increase in electricity consumption, a number of new thermal power projects will be required in areas with electricity shortages, and natural gas power generation projects will increase.
According to the goals set by the 18th National Congress and the â€œTwelfth Five-Year Planâ€ development plan, with reference to the relevant agencies and our previous research results, combined with the analysis of Chinaâ€™s economic development potential, we predict the average annual growth rate of GDP in each period of the future: 2013â€“2015, 8%, 2016~ 7% in 2020, 4.5% from 2021 to 2050.
The electricity elasticity coefficient is related to the industrial structure. When the proportion of industrial electricity accounts for more than 70%, when the growth rate of heavy chemical products exceeds the growth rate of GDP, the electricity elasticity coefficient is greater than 1, when the growth rate of heavy chemical products is lower than the growth rate of GDP, The power elasticity coefficient is less than one.
Considering that the current per capita output of steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, cement and other products has exceeded the per capita level of the world, and some have reached the level of developed countries and are constrained by factors such as the market, resources, and the environment, the growth rate will not be too fast in the future and will be lower than GDP for a long time. The growth rate, the increase in the proportion of machinery, electronics manufacturing, and tertiary industries with low electricity consumption per unit of output, the improvement of the industrial structure, the decrease in the proportion of industrial electricity consumption, and the increase in electricity savings will reduce the power elasticity coefficient; With the increase in the rate and improvement in living standards, the growth rate of electricity consumption will be higher than the growth rate of GDP, which will increase the elasticity coefficient of electricity, but the effect will be weaker. Comprehensive consideration of the future electricity elasticity coefficient will gradually decrease.
Combined with the fact that the power elasticity coefficient is 0.91 after 30 years of reform and opening up in China, and taking into account the possible downward trend in the future, the power coefficient adopted during the forecasting period of power generation will be 0.9 in 2013~2015, and 0.75,2021~2050 in 2016~2020. After entering the post-industrialization stage, it will drop to around 0.4.
According to this measure, China's power generation will reach 6.15 trillion kWh in 2015, about 7.94 trillion kWh in a full-scale well-to-do in 2020, and 5,570 kWh/year in per capita; when China reaches the level of developed countries in 2050, it will generate electricity per capita in China. The volume level will exceed Italy's current level by 2020, and it will be lower than the United States and higher than the current levels of Japan and Germany in 2050, realizing the ideal of a strong national and rich people.
The development prospects are as follows:
(I) Clean non-fossil energy The accelerated development of power generation has led to a substantial increase in the proportion of electricity. In 2020, the installed power generation capacity was 792.5 million kilowatts, accounting for 39.6%; and the power generation was 231 billion kwh, accounting for 29.2%. In 2050, the installed capacity was 2.43 billion kilowatts, accounting for 63.9%, and the power generation was 6.78 trillion kwh, accounting for 50.2%.
1. Conventional hydropower has installed 360 million kilowatts in 2020, generating 1.26 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity. The nation's economically exploitable capacity utilization rate has reached over 80%. In 2050, it has installed 500 million kilowatts, and hydropower resources have been fully utilized. With the increase in the proportion of pumped-storage power stations that will be required for power grid operation, the proportion of 210 million kilowatts will account for 5.5% in 2050.
2. Development of wind power According to the distribution characteristics of China's resources, the construction of large-scale bases will be decentralized and centralized, and priority will be given to the construction of wind power near the center of electricity consumption. Because 80% of China's wind power resources are concentrated in the north, a number of large-scale 10 million kilowatt-class wind power bases will be built in the north and a number of long-distance large-capacity UHV, UHV AC-DC power transmission projects will be supported. In 2020, 200 million kilowatts of wind power will be installed, and 800 million kilowatts in 2050.
3. The rapid development of solar power, mainly based on photovoltaic power generation combined with buildings, will account for about 80%, strengthen power planning and scientific and technological research, rational development and utilization of solar power in western desert areas, focus on building several large-scale solar power bases and supporting power grids Transmission project. We must continue to work hard to reduce costs and increase our competitiveness. In 2020, the installed capacity of solar power will be 100 million kilowatts, and 600 million kilowatts in 2050.
4. Nuclear power continues to develop safely and efficiently on an existing basis. The third-generation nuclear power unit is the main force in recent days, and research and development of fourth-generation nuclear power and fast reactors with better safety and economic performance are being vigorously studied and developed. It is tentatively envisaged that 70 million kilowatts will be installed in 2020 and 300 million kilowatts in 2050.
5. Develop and utilize renewable energy sources such as bioenergy, geothermal, and ocean energy in line with local conditions, but the quantity is not large.
(b) optimize the development of thermal power, and gradually reduce the proportion of thermal power. With the increase in the supply of natural gas, a batch of natural gas power plants will be built to increase the proportion of gas and electricity in order to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, and increase the capacity of thermal power peak shaving. Thermal power is currently the main power generation in China accounted for about 80%. Over the next 10 years, there will still be greater development based on the need for electricity growth. After 2030, we will no longer increase the amount of thermal power generation. Focus on energy-saving and emission reduction of thermal power. In 2020, thermal power installed capacity was 1.207 billion kilowatts, generating capacity was 5.62 trillion kwh, installed capacity was 1.37 billion kilowatts in 2050, accounting for 36.1% of the total, and generating capacity was 6.76 trillion kwh, accounting for 49.8% of the total. Among them, natural gas power generation installed 80 million kilowatts in 2020, generating 320 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, installed 220 million kilowatts in 2050, accounting for 5.8%, and generated 900 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, accounting for an increase of 6.8%.
(c) Coordinated development of power grids. The scale of the six major power grids has expanded, and voltage grids at all levels have been strengthened. The installed capacity of North China, East China, Central China, and South China Power Grid will exceed 600 million kilowatts by 2050, equivalent to the current level of the European continent's power grid. 1000 kV UHV AC will gradually become the backbone grid, and the installed capacity of the Northwest Power Grid will reach 400-500 million kilowatts. About 300 million kilowatts. A number of long-distance UHV UHV AC/DC transmission projects for trans-regional large-scale hydropower, wind power and solar power generation bases have been established. The exchange capacity between West-to-East power transmission, North-to-South transmission and power grid has been enhanced, and the level of intelligentization of power grids has been greatly improved. World-class smart grid.
In addition, the development trend of per capita electricity generation in developed countries shows that in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, the growth of power generation is rapid. When entering the post-industrialization stage (the per capita power generation exceeds 5,000 to 6,000 kWh/year), the growth rate slows down significantly. , and gradually approaching the peak, since then the rate of change is not long-term. Due to the different conditions of population, resources, climate, and environment in different countries, the peak value of per capita power generation varies greatly. The Group of Seven is between 5250 and 20000 kWh/year. Countries with rich energy resources are higher, and vice versa. The per capita power generation levels of the seven major developed countries and OECD countries during the period from 1990 to 2010 are shown in Table 4.
To change the mode of development, in the future, the power industry will develop in a clean, low-carbon, high-efficiency and sustainable manner. Priority will be given to the planning and construction of hydropower, wind power, solar power, nuclear power, and other renewable energy power generation. Based on the growth in electricity demand, thermal power will be optimally developed to increase natural gas. The proportion of power generation, optimize the power supply structure, increase energy efficiency, reduce costs, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the above-mentioned principle, the installed capacity of power generation is estimated to be 1.42 billion kilowatts in 2015, 2 billion kilowatts in 2020, and 3.8 billion kilowatts in 2050.
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